Süddeutsche Zeitung, 11.11.2008
The Missing Years
divorce, smoking, place of residence: What are the risks life as strongly reduce
The starting point is an almost trivial and assured by many studies finding: The life expectancy of men and women of middle age is highest when they drink little alcohol, no smoking, married, feel healthy, high school and have done a job as employees. Now the Demographers Anne Kruse, Elena Muth and Gabriele Dobler tried out to reduce the risks the lives, how much. The result stunned at least in the dimensions: A 50-year-old smoker has a lower life expectancy by 18 years as a man does with regard to his health it right.
The topics of the question Study, which has now published a short version (Demographic research first-hand, 3 / 2008) was: What are living conditions, disease characteristics or behavior cost how many years of life? The researchers used mortality data from official statistics and the Socio-Economic Panel to calculate this. They defined a 50-year-old "Superman" and a 50-year-old "Super Woman", which cut through behavior, biography and health in the life expectancy statistics best. These other people were compared to their careers are influenced by various risks.
Medical risk factors therefore contribute more than social. Thus men who, with their Health are dissatisfied, lower by 19 years of life expectancy than the "Superman". Apparently suffering from those who judge themselves not as healthy, actually often serious diseases. In women, the figure nearly 18 years is similar. Similar rate increases, the number of years of life in people who suffer at the age of 50 years of age diabetes, smoking heavily or drink much alcohol (see chart).
comparison, is the impact of social influences weakened. Shortens the life of unemployment by 14 years. A divorce reduces the life expectancy compared with the ideal types for almost ten years, similar to a lower degree.
differences between men and women show only a few factors. For example, the life expectancy of women living alone less a few years, in men does not occur on this effect. Also infertility (which is not in men in the statistics recorded in full) acts in women statistically live easy shortening. "This can happen with women in the absence of social contacts, but also biological factors are," says co-author Elena Muth, who works at Rostock's center for demographic change.
The individual, surprisingly high level of risk may however not lead to an addition - for example in the sense that the life expectancy of an unemployed, divorced smoker for 14 plus nine reduced plus 18 years. "Risk factors often cause each other, so the overall effect is smaller than the individual effects," says Elena Muth.
FELIX BERTH
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